स्टॉक मार्केट आउटलुक, Stock market outlook

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 तीन महीने पहले मैंने अर्थव्यवस्था और इक्विटी बाजारों के लिए सकारात्मक दृष्टिकोण दिया था और लगभग सब कुछ (रूस-यूक्रेन युद्ध को छोड़कर) भविष्यवाणियों के अनुसार हुआ। मुद्रास्फीति, कच्चे तेल की कीमतों में थोड़ी नरमी आई और बेंचमार्क सेंसेक्स ने 60 हजार का अंकडा फिर से  हासिल किया। 

लेकिन अब समय धीमी गति से चलने का है क्योंकि चीजें हमेशा सौम्य नहीं रह सकती हैं, इसमें कई तोड़  और मोड़ आते रहेंगे।



अक्टूबर और नवंबर में ग्रहो के नौ महत्वपूर्ण  गोचर जिनमे  मंगल (16 अक्टूबर) सूर्य (17 अक्टूबर) शुक्र (18 अक्टूबर)  बुध (26 अक्टूबर)   तुला में और शनि का मार्गी गोचर (23 अक्टूबर ), सूर्य ग्रहण (25 अक्टूबर) मंगल वक्री गति (30 अक्टूबर से -२३ जनवरी 2023 ) ), चंद्र ग्रहण (8 नवंबर), और बृहस्पति का मार्गी गोचर  (23 नवंबर) अप्रैल 2023 के मध्य तक इक्विटी बाजारों के लिए बढ़ी हुई अस्थिरता का संकेत दे रहे  हैं। बेंचमार्क बीएसई सेंसेक्स और निफ्टी 50 एक सीमाबद्ध तरीके से व्यापार जारी रखने की संभावना है। इस बात की भी बहुत कम संभावना है कि बाजार सूचकांक इस साल के उच्च स्तर से आगे जा सकें और अगले तीन महीनों की अवधि निवेश  सेंटीमेंट्स  के लिए थोड़ी नकारात्मक लग रही है।

Three months ago I had given a positive outlook for the economy and equity markets and almost everything (except Russia –Ukraine war) happened as per predictions. The inflation, crude oil prices softened a bit and the bench mark Sensex regained 60 thousand mark . (check here Stock market and Economic Recession prediction )

However, now it’s time to go slow as things might not remain benign always, there will be twists and turns.

The nine significant planetary transits of Mars (16 Oct) Sun (17 Oct) Venus (18 Oct) and Mercury (26 Oct) in Libra and Saturn’s direct motion (23 Oct), Solar Eclipse (25 Oct) Mars retrograde motion (30 Oct), Lunar Eclipse (8 Nov), and Jupiter direct motion (23 Nov) indicate increased volatility for the Equity markets till mid of April 2023.  The bench mark BSE Sensex and Nifty50 is likely to continue trade in a range bound manner. It is highly unlikely that markets indices could go beyond the highs it made this year and the next three months period looks a bit negative for investment sentiments.

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